2014 has been an amazing year so far. The over-heated market from last year is struggling to break into positive territory. When I did a review of my 2013 performance, I was shocked at how well the general market did in 2013. It is amazing what a bull run can do to the market and people’s psychology. Although I expected strong market returns for the next few years, I didn’t expect people to go that crazy, that fast.
2014 has been good for us so far. We are up over 13% for the year. What is interesting is that most of this is due to little change in fundamentals for our holdings. Infact, I think the market change will come in the coming months (BAC: when the stress test and capital return results are made public; XPEL: when Q4 numbers come out; CHK: when Q4 #s and the increase in NatGas prices reflect into earnings; MBI: when the imminent rating upgrade happens).
Most recently, I sold out of my holdings in the GSE preferred and commons. I like both of these securities and the current prices are still very cheap. Infact I might get back into these securities if, in a few months, they are still lingering at these prices. I bought other positions that I think are even cheaper.
Aurcana (AUNFF): I bought this stock in Feb. The stock has jumped over 100% in 2014. Although I think this is just the beginning. The company recently made a comment that they are looking at a strategic change. This mining stock has been beaten up due to the entire sector has been oversold and financing concerns. I think the strategic change will be huge value creator for shareholders. The 52-week high for this stock is over $6, and the company was trading at $1 when we bought the shares. So any news on the strategic change can create huge returns.
Goldgroup Mining (GGAZF): Goldgroup is another mining stock that was thrown into the sewer in 2013. The company was quietly executing on its operational change but the market didn’t care. The company recently put into production an asset that should do 700-1,000 oz of gold each month. At a low cost of $400-500, this company is going to be making good cash flow, compared to the market cap. Plus there are potential home-run events if they are able to settle a legal dispute, get permit for another asset, or do another small accretive acquisition. At the prices we were buying, we didn’t need much to go right. Just one thing goes our way and we could have a multi-bagger.